The polls are still very early, but swing state polls suggest that President Trump will have an uphill battle to win a second term.
Trump’s upset victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin sent him to the White House in 2016. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to win any of those states since 1988.
But today, most polls show Trump behind former Vice President Joe Biden in all of those swing states.
That will be a problem for Trump because if the 2016 map otherwise stays the same, a Democratic candidate who wins those three states will win the Electoral College.
“Wisconsin seems to be a real problem, the 2018 midterms were a disaster for Republicans there, and Biden seems to have unique appeal in Pennsylvania,” said Alex Conant, a partner at the GOP firm Firehouse Strategies.
“Trump appears to be running strongest in Michigan, and he really only needs to hold on to one of these to win reelection. But it’s going to be very competitive and Trump is going to need to spend a lot of time in those three states and hope for the kind of turnout we saw in 2016,” he said.
What makes matters even worse for Trump is that polls also show him trailing Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in a number of other swing states.
A poll of North Carolina released this week showed Biden up 12 points on Trump and Sanders leading him by 8 points. Former President Obama is the only recent Democratic presidential candidate to win the Tar Heel State, with the previous Democratic victory there going all the way back to 1976.
And three states that Trump won easily in 2016 – Texas, Arizona and Iowa – appear to be up for grabs, with some surveys finding Biden in the lead in all three states.
What are your thoughts about these early polls?