At a time when the global scientists and leaders are debating over cutting the carbon emissions, they are also found being skeptical about the climate models as they believe such mapping of climatic trends are consistently overestimating the warming effects of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide.
But a new study has showed that these climate models are not presenting overestimates of the warming effects of such gases that are heavily responsible for the global warming.
While many climate models have not predicted the relatively modest surface-warming gap, it’s not due to the reason that they have been biased in favor of the warming effects of the greenhouse-gas emissions.
The findings of the study were reported in the journal Nature.
According to the researchers, such computer simulations only struggle hard for making trustable predictions about the chaotic or random changes that are of short-term in the climate system. These changes can temporarily include or exclude from the warming effects carbon dioxide emissions.
It’s the truth that the air temperatures have surged slowly in the past 15 years or so, and the models of climate tends on average have showed much more warming. But the researchers are trying hard to find out the reason behind this mismatch.
Researchers Piers M. Forster of the University of Leeds and Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology conducted a study in order to check whether the models of climate are biased.
For the study, the researchers examined how 114 climate models that strengthened the United Nations’ (UN) 2014 assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The researchers tried to find out whether these models consistently overestimated or underestimated the amount of warming. But, the models were found doing pretty well.
According to the researchers, there existed random fluctuations that had 2.5 times the impact on the variations of model predictions among other physical factors.
The research group concluded that the climate models may not offer the perfect picture of the climate change in a given short-term period, but they are not biased.